South Korea is projected to receive more than 20 million inbound visitors in 2026, reaching a historic high. However, outbound travel by Korean nationals is also expected to expand, leaving the long-standing imbalance between inbound and outbound tourism—estimated at roughly 10 million travelers—largely unresolved.
On December 29, Yanolja Research, Korea’s only data-driven travel and tourism research institute, hosted a seminar titled “2026 Inbound and Outbound Demand Forecasts and Tourism Strategy” at the aT Center in Seoul. Drawing on its proprietary deep-learning demand forecasting model, the institute presented its outlook for the 2026 tourism market and outlined structural policy implications.
In the opening presentation, Suckwon Hong, Principal Researcher at Yanolja Research, introduced the results of an LSTM-based deep-learning model, noting that predictive accuracy was substantially improved by incorporating seasonality, macroeconomic variables, and nonlinear external shocks.
The analysis forecasts inbound arrivals to Korea in 2026 at 20.36 million, up 8.7% year-on-year, the highest level ever recorded. By source market, arrivals are projected from China (6.15 million), Japan (3.84 million), Taiwan (1.93 million), and the United States (1.66 million). In particular, the U.S. market is expected to grow by over 60% compared to pre-pandemic levels, supported by sustained dollar strength.
Hong pointed out that during the THAAD dispute, approximately 10–13% of Chinese outbound demand was diverted from Korea to Japan. “With China–Japan tensions intensifying once again, Korea may benefit from a similar substitution effect,” he said. Should such a balloon effect materialize, Chinese arrivals could increase to as many as 7 million, generating an additional 400,000 to 900,000 visitors. In this scenario, total inbound arrivals in 2026 could expand further to 20.76–21.26 million.
In the second session, Deachul Seo, Senior Researcher at Yanolja Research, projected outbound travel by Koreans in 2026 at 30.23 million trips, representing a 2.6% year-on-year increase. Even as inbound tourism reaches a historic peak, outbound demand is expected to grow in parallel, sustaining an inbound–outbound gap of approximately 10 million travelers.
Seo explained that as overseas travel becomes increasingly normalized, destination-specific demand is becoming structurally decoupled. Japan is projected to remain the leading outbound destination with 9.65 million Korean visitors, supported by a weak yen and expanded regional air connectivity. China is expected to record strong growth of 24.2%, driven by visa-free entry policies. By contrast, demand for Thailand is forecast to decline due to heightened safety concerns and currency-related cost pressures.
“The basis of travel consumption has shifted,” Seo noted. “Price is no longer the dominant factor; safety and perceived value for money now play a decisive role. In this sense, 2026 will mark a year of qualitative restructuring in the travel market.”
In the third session, Soocheong Jang, Director of Yanolja Research, identified the ‘Value Gap’ in travel experience as the structural driver behind Korea’s persistent tourism deficit.
“The annual deficit of nearly USD 10 billion cannot be explained by exchange rates or pricing alone,” Jang argued. “It reflects a fundamental gap in how domestic travel is valued.”
According to Yanolja Research, consumers tend to perceive overseas travel as an experiential investment, while domestic travel is largely regarded as functional consumption. Although willingness to travel domestically remains high, only 18% of respondents expressed willingness to pay costs comparable to those of overseas travel.
As policy responses, Jang proposed local storytelling, premium thematic travel, and the upcycling of underutilized spaces, emphasizing that standardized, infrastructure-driven tourism has reached its limits. “The objective is not cheaper domestic travel,” he stressed, “but experiences that travelers are willing to pay for, even at a premium, because they deliver emotional and experiential value.”
In the final presentation, Kyuwan Choi, Professor at Kyung Hee University’s College of Hotel and Tourism Management, proposed a hub-and-spoke, ultra-wide-area tourism model to address the overconcentration of foreign visitors in the Seoul metropolitan area.
“Tourism development led by individual local governments has reached its structural limits,” Choi said, calling for inter-regional integration. Key measures include attracting international carriers to regional airports such as Gimhae and Muan, strengthening last-mile mobility linking hub airports to surrounding destinations, and building integrated regional brands, comparable to Japan’s Setouchi model.
“Creating a system that allows foreign visitors to reach regional destinations directly—without transiting through Seoul—is the most effective tourism-based solution to regional decline,” he concluded.
The seminar concluded with a panel discussion moderated by Soocheong Jang, with participants from academia, local governments, aviation authorities, research institutions, and the private sector.
Panelists broadly agreed that the forecast of 20.36 million inbound visitors in 2026 appropriately reflects current market conditions, while emphasizing the need for more granular demand analysis by generation, stronger metropolitan–regional linkages, expanded capacity at regional airports, and governance structures capable of enabling genuine inter-regional cooperation.
In closing, Jang stated, “Just as Japan elevated tourism into a second export industry, Korea must use 2026 as a turning point to position tourism as a core pillar of national growth.” He added, “The strategies discussed today must now be translated into a concrete and executable roadmap.”
Yanolja Research announced that it will continue to publish annual, data-driven tourism demand forecasts and expand policy recommendations aimed at fostering the qualitative advancement of Korea’s tourism industry.
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